Super Bowl Commercial Odds – Budweiser Wins Again?

Super Bowl Commercial Odds – Budweiser Wins Again?

Sascha P.No comments

SUPER BOWL COMMERCIAL ODDS

Odds to win the social media Super Bowl (according to Marketingland.com):

Facebook: 4/3

Twitter: 1/1

Instagram: 5/1

SnapChat: 20/1

Periscope: 100/1

Other: 100/1

Facebook has won the past two years. Twitter dominated the year before that. Instagram is the trendy social media network at the moment; celebrity popularity is now measured in Insta-followers. But Facebook and Twitter should still dominate when it comes to retailers with products to pitch.

 

Odds on which advertiser will “win Super Bowl 50” (according to MarketingLand.com):

Budweiser/Bud Light: 4/1

Snickers: 8/1

Doritos: 9/1

Taco Bell: 9/1

Avocados from Mexico: 14/1

FIELD: 1/1

Budweiser always has a strong showing at the Super Bowl, and it’s usually clydesdale-fueled. Snickers showed some panache last year with their Brady Bunch-inspired commercial; expect more fun-and-games from them this year as they continue the “you’re not you when you’re hungry” campaign (this time with Marilyn Monroe in-tow?!). Doritos and Taco Bell can’t be counted out; they have the capital and experience to recreate McDonald’s’ winning effort from last year. The little engine that might, Avocados from Mexico, had a hit last year with their “first draft ever” spot; they’ll be back with something novel for SB50.

Of course, with so many advertisers in the mix and vying for the attention of TV’s biggest audience, the field is still a heavy favorite.

 

Odds on which advertiser will be named the biggest loser of Super Bowl 50:

Skittles: 6/1

AXE: 10/1

Squarespace: 12/1

Colgate: 15/1

Michelob Ultra: 15/1

FIELD: 3/5

It’s no huge surprise that many of last year’s big losers – like Nationwide, Lexus, and T-Mobile – didn’t want to drop another $5 mil this year. That’s a lot of money to spend on being unceremoniously dissed on social media for the next eight hours.  Squarespace bucks the trend, though! They’re taking a third stab at Super Bowl ad glory after two straight years of disappointment. They’ve got Key & Peele this time around. If the powers-that-be just stay out of the way, the Comedy Central duo should keep the brand out of trouble.

As for the other contenders: AXE commercials are generally stupid; Skittles ads are just weird; and I’ve yet to see anything inventive from a toothpaste. (Nine out of ten dentists recommend avoiding Colgate’s Super Bowl commercial!)

Then there’s Michelob Ultra. Their last SB commercial (in 2010) was boring as a vole (wordplay!) and featured Lance Armstrong. Double-fail. But they are still an Anheuser-Busch brand and should have access to the same sort of minds that craft winning spots for Budweiser year after year.

Again, FIELD is the safest bet.

 

Odds on which celebrity will be mentioned the most on social media for their Super Bowl commercial appearance:

Marilyn Monroe (Snickers): 4/1

Amy Schumer (Bud Light): 6/1

Christopher Walken (Kia): 6/1

Lil Wayne (apartments.com): 9/1

Jeff Goldblum (apartments.com): 9/1

Liam Neeson (LG): 9/1

Seth Rogen (Bud Light): 10/1

Key & Peele (Squarespace): 15/1

Alec Baldwin (Amazon): 15/1

Billy Eichner (Butterfinger): 35/1

TJ Miller (Shock Top): 40/1

Steven Tyler (Skittles): 45/1

Scott Baio (Avocados from Mexico): 95/2

Dan Marino (Amazon): 50/1

Sorry, Dan. It’s hard to get a lot of mentions when you’re playing second fiddle in a ho-hum commercial. Tyler could surprise, but only because people like talking about weird things. He and Skittles are both weird things. Miller and Eichner are both funny dudes with funny ads, but their names haven’t seeped into the public conscious well enough to be favorites, unlike Schumer.

The novelty of a Marilyn Monroe commercial will be worth the price of admission (to your living room?).

Walken and Goldblum could give mention-worthy performances while doing their taxes.

Liam Neeson was the most “engaged” last year for his Clash of Clans ad. Evidently, he has more than one set of skills.

 

Odds on which beverage brand will have the most shared/mentioned Super Bowl commercial on social media:

Budweiser: 3/2

Coke: 6/1

Pepsi: 6/1

Bud Light: 8/1

Shock Top: 9/1

Mountain Dew: 9/1

Michelob Ultra: 10/1

If it’s beer and the Super Bowl, it’s going to be Budweiser. It’s always Budweiser.

 

Odds to “win Super Bowl 50” among automakers (according to MarketingLand.com):

Kia: 4/1

Hyundai: 5/1

Toyota: 8/1

Honda: 12/1

Acura: 15/1

Buick: 15/1

Mini USA: 25/1

Why Kia? Christopher Walken, that’s why. Hyundai is hitting the game hard with four commercials and they have legit directors for each one. The two that have been released so far are promising, as is their SB pedigree.

Toyota’s “comedy of errors” ad campaign could garner traction. But their celebrity-less SB ad is for the Prius, not exactly the sexiest car.

Honda has acapella sheep. It’s not as good as it sounds. Acura’s ad is visually appealing, but not terribly inventive.

Mini went the serious route with an ad starring Serena Williams. It’s boring.

 

Odds on which first-time advertiser’s Super Bowl 50 commercial will be the most shared/mentioned on social media?

Apartments.com: 5/1

Pokemon: 5/1

Amazon: 8/1

Shock Top (TJ Miller): 12/1

LG: 25/2

PayPal: 15/1

Quicken Loans: 15/1

Marmot: 25/1

Colgate: 40/1

SoFi: 50/1

SunTrust: 50/1

Henkel’s Persil ProClean: 100/1

Most successful Super Bowl ads are funny. The apartments.com ad – starring Lil Wayne, Jeff Goldblum, and George Washington – is going to be funny. This one from Pokemon is not, but geez is that likely to amp up a certain demographic, one that’s good at teh internetz.

I wish Colgate’s “save water” commercial was going to be more popular. But it just isn’t.

You might be surprised to see Quicken Loans so high on the list given that their commercial isn’t funny and doesn’t have celebrities. But their ad for Rocket Mortgage might be one of the least self-aware spots ever. It acts like Rocket Mortgage – which allows people to get a mortgage with the click of a button on their phone – is going to save the US economy. Remember the 2008 financial crisis? Remember how it was spurred, in part, by too many people having too-easy-access to unregulated mortgages? Oy. (I’m not saying Rocket Mortgage will cause a recession, merely pointing out some ostensible hypocrisy.)

Ugh, Henkel’s ad is going to be terrible. 

 

Odds to be the most-shared hashtag on the day of Super Bowl 50:

#Pokemon20 — Pokemon: 5/1

#DriveAcuraNSXContest — Acura: 6/1

#CrashTheSuperBowl — Doritos: 6/1

#movinonup — apartments.com: 8/1

#AvosInSpace — Avocados from Mexico: 9/1

#MeettheKetchups — Heinz: 10/1

#StartStunning — Wix: 12/1

#AddPizzazz — Kia: 12/1

#BolderThanBold — Butterfinger: 15/1

#BaldwinBowl — Amazon Echo: 20/1

#ManFromTheFuture — LG: 20/1

#OLEDisHere — LG: 20/1

#Everydropcounts — Colgate: 35

#FindYourMagic — Axe: 50/1

#DefyLabels — Mini USA: 50/1

#SoFiGreat — SoFi: 75/1

#GameDayStains — Henkel’s Persil ProClean: 100/1

This one’s hard to predict because you don’t know how hard each brand will push the hashtag aspect of their commercials. For example, brands that offer prizes for using their hashtag are likely to get more shares than others. (Acura’s #DriveAcuraNSXContest certainly sounds like it will be attached to a promotion; I expect the same from Doritos’ #CrashTheSuperBowl.)

Pokemon is still at the top, though, because kids and hashtags go together like peanut butter and my mouth.

LG would be higher, given Neeson’s penchant for generating interest online, but they’ve split their efforts between two hashtags.

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